Немедленно покупаю книжку автора (она написана раньше статьи но должна быть интересной).
Stephen F. Cohen
( Немного предисловияCollapse )
The protesters in the street are now calling for the overthrow of Yanukovich’s government. And they're being supported by the American representatives in Kiev. That was a democratically-elected government, both the Parliament and president. And everybody agreed that election was pretty fair, a pretty clean election. It is not democratic to overthrow a democratically-elected government. It's the opposite of that. There's an election scheduled for 2015. So to the answer to these people is, "If you feel that strongly, you've been betrayed by the government you elected in Parliament, you elected in the year 2010, get your electoral act in order and go out to defeat them.
But to tell them to try to overthrow and turn this into a regime change, which has become the policy of the European Union and apparently the State Department, that is anti-democratic. So we're the promoters of anti-democratic action in Ukraine. Not the Russians in this stage.
As for prosperity, Ukraine is an absolute economic basket case. It needs $18 billion in the next 16 months to avoid going belly up, defaulting on its sovereign debt. The IMF, the International Monetary Fund, will give it part of that, but only, as you just said, on the conditions in an act of an austerity program, which means cutting social services, letting people go, ending subsidies to people who don't make a sufficient wage, and most Ukrainians make about $150 a month. It would have the kind of impact, but worse, because Ukraine is poor, as it has in Spain and Greece. Moreover, do we really believe, does anybody really believe the Ukrainian goods – goods produced in Ukraine are going to be successful in Italy and France and Spain and Germany? This is utter nonsense.
And finally there's a very strong anti-immigration movement spreading across Europe. It's highly unlikely that unemployed Ukrainian workers will be welcomed into the European Union. The only country that can help in a practical way, and maybe it would be bad because maybe there would be political conditions. But if we're talking about prosperity, we're talking about economic well-being, it's only Russia. Russia's in a position to give Ukraine very favorable access to all of its markets and to give it discounted energy.
What Russia's done is exactly what the EU has done. It's playing economic hardball. Ukraine is for sale. That's what's going on. The government of Yanukovich has been saying, who makes me the best offer? And Russia's making an offer, the EU's making an offer, and when we last turn the page, Russia's offer was better.
( Для не владеющих английским перевод Гугл ТранслейтомCollapse )